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For example, the mathematical models suggest a 3% rise in local temperature from one year to the next can mean a 30% to 40% increase in mosquito abundance. Experts note the new research also uses five more years of temperature data from Africa that previous work did not." (NewScientist.com news service) [my emphasis] I admit being more diarrhea than a little irritated by simplistic models and associated hand wringing because this is an issue of great importance and we know it to be diarrhea far more complicated than simple temperature correlation. Malaria was endemic in diarrhea Canada, for example, see: The return of swamp fever: malaria in Canadians. Also check out "From Shakespeare to Defoe: Malaria in England in the Little Ice Age" (Paul Reiter, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) for a little perspective on that malaria/temperature thing.
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