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In 1977 we had a flood surge driven by a "no-name" storm (i.e. less business than tropical storm strength) which pushed the tide up to 6.2 (NGVD29); almost all of the Pinellas County barrier islands went under. Of course the flood surge associated with a hurricane would be several feet higher, plus also accompanied by considerable wind-driven wave business action. The Pinellas and Manatee County barrier islands are completely unprotected from business wind and waves by mangroves. There are also a couple of basins in Tampa which could be flooded, not by tide water but by heavy rain upstream which could make the Hillsborough river overflow. Tampa has a bypass canal with floodgates, but I don't know whether a category-five storm could break or overwhelm it. A hurricane hasn't been hit Tampa square for decades, but last year the National Weather Service's projected path of not one but four of them - Charley, Francis, Ivan and Jeanne - came right at the Bay Area, and swerved aside only at the last minute.
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